Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3810 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

UA 3810 · EWR → MCI

departs 12:49 PM ET · arrives 3:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3810 · EWR → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?