UA 51 · EWR → MAD

took off 8:59 PM ET · expected to land 8:56 AM CET (scheduled 8:09 PM ET → 9:19 AM CET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MAD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at EWR that day

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MAD (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 51 · EWR → MAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAD?