Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 582 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

UA 582 · SFO → BOI

departs 2:06 PM PT · arrives 4:55 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±7 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOI?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

BOI (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 582 · SFO → BOI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOI?