Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 700 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

UA 700 · IAH → EWR

departs 4:47 PM CT · arrives 9:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±10 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling9,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,533 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 700 · IAH → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?