UA 70 · EWR → AMS

took off 7:50 PM ET · expected to land 8:14 AM CET (scheduled 6:03 PM ET → 7:04 AM CET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at AMS more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AMS?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
96%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AMS (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 70 · EWR → AMS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMS?