Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8174 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14 Today

UA 8174 · IAH → AUS

departs 6:58 PM CT · arrives 8:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling9,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

AUS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.56 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8174 · IAH → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?