Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8245 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

UA 8245 · SFO → EWR

departs 10:05 AM PT · arrives 6:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

EWR (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8245 · SFO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?