UA 884 · IAD → FCO

took off 6:31 PM ET · expected to land 10:35 AM CET (scheduled 6:13 PM ET → 8:30 AM CET)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at FCO more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FCO?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
90%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FCO

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FCO (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 884 · IAD → FCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to FCO?