Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 915 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

UA 915 · IAD → CDG

departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 6:47 AM CET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at CDG more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CDG?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at IAD that day

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CDG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 915 · IAD → CDG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CDG?