Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1017
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 1017 · BWI → HOU
departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 8:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Fri 11/13 30%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 48%
Mon 11/16 34%
Tue 11/17 31%
Wed 11/18 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.