WN 1100 · LAS → FAT

took off 9:14 PM PT · landed 9:54 PM PT (scheduled 5:41 PM PT → 7:05 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to FAT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

FAT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1100 · LAS → FAT

Odds over time

How late did it get to FAT?