Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1177
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 1177 · PHX → SAN
departs 12:23 PM MT · arrives 12:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.