WN 1178 · PHX → SAT

departs 5:54 PM MT · arrives 9:09 PM CT

Your aircraft is N8873S (B38M), coming in as WN 2582 from GEG: landed 6:28 PM MT.

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,143 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1178 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?