Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1199
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 1199 · LAS → SJC
departs 11:21 AM PT · arrives 12:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.