Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1386
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 1386 · DTW → BWI
departs 3:06 PM ET · arrives 4:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.