WN 1505 · SAN → SMF

departs 3:50 PM PT · arrives 5:40 PM PT

Your aircraft is N438WN (B737), coming in as WN 1841 from SBA: in the air, landing about 2:39 PM PT, 67 min before departure.

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

83% chance · ±0 pts +46 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
13%
15–30 min late
50%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
24%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.10 in

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1505 · SAN → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?