WN 1554 · LAX → AUS

departs 3:45 PM PT · arrives 8:44 PM CT

Your aircraft is N8581Z (B738).

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.20 in

AUS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,971 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1554 · LAX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?