Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 158
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 158 · TUL → DAL
departs 2:06 PM CT · arrives 3:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
↓
TUL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 8,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.