Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1596
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Tomorrow
WN 1596 · SMF → SAN
departs 1:47 PM PT · arrives 3:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.