Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 1815 · AUA → BWI
departs 3:46 PM AST · arrives 7:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave AUA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
AUA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.