Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Tomorrow
WN 1843 · DEN → STL
departs 5:23 PM MT · arrives 8:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 30%
Mon 11/16 31%
Tue 11/17 30%
Wed 11/18 25%
Thu 11/19 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.