WN 1844 · TPA → AUS

departs 6:25 PM ET · arrives 8:12 PM CT

Your aircraft is N8520Q (B738).

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1844 · TPA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?