Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 184
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 184 · AMA → DAL
departs 2:40 PM CT · arrives 4:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Fri 11/13 20%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 27%
Mon 11/16 22%
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AMA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
2pm departures from AMA are usually not late
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AMA (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.23 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 8,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.