Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 1854 · LGB → SMF
departs 9:47 AM PT · arrives 11:23 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGB that day
↓
9am departures from LGB are usually not late
↓
LGB usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.27 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.