Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 1856 · PDX → SJC
departs 11:46 AM PT · arrives 1:41 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
11am departures from PDX are often late
↓
PDX usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.