Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 2015 · LAX → BNA
departs 1:16 PM PT · arrives 7:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 11/13 56%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 47%
Mon 11/16 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.17 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.