WN 2023 · LAX → SMF

took off 6:02 PM PT · expected to land 6:59 PM PT (scheduled 3:51 PM PT → 5:25 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
99%
Over 2 hours late
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.20 in

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2023 · LAX → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?