WN 2226 · SMF → EUG

departs 6:06 PM PT · arrives 7:38 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?

77% chance · ±0 pts +47 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EUG?

On time or early
18%
15–30 min late
46%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
24%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from SMF are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EUG (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2226 · SMF → EUG

Odds over time

How late will it get to EUG?