Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2452
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 2452 · RDU → MCO
departs 2:45 PM ET · arrives 4:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Fri 11/13 37%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 32%
Mon 11/16 30%
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.