WN 2477 · SMF → LAS

departs 5:00 PM PT · arrives 6:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

81% chance · ±0 pts +58 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
52%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
19%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2477 · SMF → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?