Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 2512 · PHX → BUR
departs 2:34 PM MT · arrives 3:04 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Fri 11/13 44%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 37%
Mon 11/16 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.