Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 2618 · OGG → KOA
departs 1:31 PM HT · arrives 2:26 PM HT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 17%
Mon 11/16 21%
Tue 11/17 18%
Wed 11/18 16%
Thu 11/19 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at KOA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to KOA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from OGG are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
OGG usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
KOA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.