WN 262 · STL → DTW

departs 2:51 PM CT · arrives 5:30 PM ET

Your aircraft is N8645A (B738).

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 262 · STL → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?