WN 2712 · PHX → AUS

departs 6:02 PM MT · arrives 9:21 PM CT

Your aircraft is N8543Z (B738), coming in as WN 1460 from PDX: in the air, landing about 6:51 PM MT, 55 min after the scheduled departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +56 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
38%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
45%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2712 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?