WN 2832 · PHX → TUS

departs 6:00 PM MT · arrives 6:58 PM MT

Your aircraft is N8727M (B38M), coming in as WN 1219 from SJC: still at SJC, due off about 3:59 PM PT, 28 min after the scheduled departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

98% chance · ±0 pts +66 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
2%
15–30 min late
53%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
32%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2832 · PHX → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?