Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 2866 · MCO → SJU
departs 4:34 PM ET · arrives 8:28 PM AT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 11/13 33%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 37%
Mon 11/16 36%
Tue 11/17 29%
Wed 11/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.