Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 296
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Tomorrow
WN 296 · SEA → OAK
departs 4:36 PM PT · arrives 6:43 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 11/14
Tue 11/17 34%
Wed 11/18 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip 0.03 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.