Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2990 LANDED 2:14 AM PT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, November 14 Yesterday

WN 2990 · MDW → OAK

took off 12:14 AM CT · landed 2:14 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 22h after departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts −21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2990 · MDW → OAK

Odds over time