Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 3021 · SAT → PHX
departs 1:49 PM CT · arrives 3:25 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.12 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.