Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 3458 · JAN → BNA
departs 1:01 PM CT · arrives 2:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Fri 11/13 14%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 16%
Mon 11/16 14%
Tue 11/17 12%
Wed 11/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
JAN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.