Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3498
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Tomorrow
WN 3498 · SNA → SJC
departs 5:07 PM PT · arrives 6:36 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 41%
Mon 11/16 24%
Tue 11/17 18%
Wed 11/18 15%
Thu 11/19 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SJC at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,167 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.