Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Tomorrow
WN 3506 · PHX → SJC
departs 3:57 PM MT · arrives 4:58 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 11/14
Tue 11/17 27%
Wed 11/18 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±6 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.