Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3576
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 3576 · ONT → SMF
departs 1:06 PM PT · arrives 2:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from ONT are often late
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.