Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Tomorrow
WN 3578 · MDW → BUF
departs 3:42 PM CT · arrives 6:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at BUF that day
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.