WN 3641 · MDW → OMA

took off 8:50 PM CT · expected to land 9:50 PM CT (scheduled 6:07 PM CT → 7:41 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OMA?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
91%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OMA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3641 · MDW → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?