WN 3792 · MCO → ISP

took off 7:58 PM ET · expected to land 10:04 PM ET (scheduled 5:46 PM ET → 8:28 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ISP?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
96%
Over 2 hours late
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ISP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3792 · MCO → ISP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ISP?