Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3909
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 3909 · LAS → STL
departs 3:28 PM PT · arrives 8:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 54%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 48%
Mon 11/16 38%
Tue 11/17 22%
Wed 11/18 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.