WN 397 · PHX → SMF

departs 4:01 PM MT · arrives 5:13 PM PT

Your aircraft is N8672F (B738), coming in as WN 3021 from SAT: in the air, landing about 4:13 PM MT, 18 min after the scheduled departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts +66 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
69%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
14%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 397 · PHX → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?