Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4010
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 4010 · MCO → ALB
departs 2:58 PM ET · arrives 5:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at ALB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ALB?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ALB (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.