Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4018
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 4018 · SMF → LAX
departs 11:39 AM PT · arrives 1:09 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 23%
Mon 11/16 21%
Tue 11/17 17%
Wed 11/18 18%
Thu 11/19 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,233 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.